Highest temperature in Mexico City on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Mexico City's highest temperature on 24 July 2026 will be measured at Benito Juárez International Airport, the official meteorological station for the capital. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, capturing the full diurnal cycle for that date. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders expect the market's temperature bands to exclude the actual high, or that insufficient liquidity exists to establish meaningful odds across available ranges.

Mexico City's July climate is remarkably consistent. Historical data from the same airport station shows July highs typically cluster between 26–28°C, with extreme readings rarely exceeding 30°C. The city's elevation at 2,250 metres moderates temperatures year-round; even during the warm season, afternoon thunderstorms frequently develop by late afternoon, capping daytime highs. Over the past decade, only three July days at the airport have recorded highs above 29°C. This stability means traders should focus on whether the market's resolution bands align with the 26–29°C range where actual outcomes concentrate.

Catalysts for 24 July 2026 remain distant, but seasonal patterns are predictable. The Mexican rainy season peaks in July, and the North Atlantic hurricane season could influence upper-level atmospheric patterns affecting cloud cover and afternoon convection. Traders monitoring this contract should watch for any unusual heat dome forecasts as the date approaches, though Mexico City's geography and elevation make sustained extreme heat unlikely. Wunderground's historical data tool provides direct comparison to prior years' readings on the same calendar date, offering a straightforward baseline for assessing which temperature band carries genuine probability.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Mexico City on July 24? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.