Highest temperature in Munich on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich’s airport station will settle this market on the single highest temperature reached before the midday cutoff, so the key question is whether August heat can lift the day’s peak into the upper end of the usual summer band. Munich’s August average high is about 24–25°C, but records show the month can spike far above that, with August highs as severe as 37–38°C in the historical data. That makes a low single-digit **YES** price consistent with a market that is effectively asking for an unusually hot day rather than a normal late-summer warm-up.[1][4][14]

The current 1% crowd-implied probability is below what a broad historical reading would suggest for any given August day, but the contract is narrowly defined around the maximum temperature on one specific date at Munich Airport, not the citywide average. Comparable climate pages show August highs usually around 24°C, with only a small share of days reaching the high 20s or 30s, while the published record for 1 August at Munich in the available climate set is 35.8°C, implying the upside exists but is uncommon.[4][8][10] Against that backdrop, a 1% price reads as a firm sceptical line rather than a call on a broad seasonal pattern.

Traders should watch the near-term forecast for Munich Airport, especially the daytime maximum, cloud cover, wind direction and any convective risk, because those factors decide whether the airfield warms enough before the settlement window closes. AccuWeather’s August 2026 outlook for Munich points to daily highs generally between 69°F and 81°F, which supports a modestly warm but not extreme baseline, while WeatherSpark’s August climatology suggests highs typically ease from the mid-70s °F to around 70°F as the month progresses.[7][8] No sportsbook-style line is visible in the supplied material, so the main comparison is between that 1% market price and the more ordinary climatological expectation.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Munich on August 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.