Highest temperature in Munich on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 14 August 2026, Munich Airport Station will record its daily maximum temperature, which this market will settle against using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests traders are not positioning for any particular temperature range, indicating either insufficient liquidity or consensus around a baseline expectation that hasn't yet crystallised into explicit odds.

Munich's August climate typically produces highs between 24–28°C, with occasional excursions toward 30°C during heat waves. Historical August data from the airport station shows that temperatures exceeding 32°C occur roughly once per decade, whilst readings below 20°C are rare but possible during unsettled weather patterns. The 0% probability reading across all ranges suggests the market may lack sufficient trader participation to establish meaningful price discovery, a common pattern for weather contracts settled far in advance where meteorological uncertainty remains genuinely high.

Traders monitoring this contract should track European summer weather patterns as August 2026 approaches, particularly Atlantic blocking systems and heat dome development across central Europe. The German Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst) publishes extended forecasts from mid-July onward that typically narrow uncertainty bands. Resolution hinges entirely on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table for Munich Airport, making data-source verification critical; any discrepancies between that table and the Day High & Low summary section will be resolved in favour of the former according to market specifications.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Munich on August 14? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.