Highest temperature in Munich on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 18 August 2026, Munich Airport's weather station will record a daily maximum temperature in Celsius. The market's 0% implied probability suggests traders are pricing near-zero likelihood of any specific temperature outcome materialising, which typically reflects either extreme clarity about the expected range or minimal trading activity establishing a baseline. Resolution hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, a distinction that occasionally produces discrepancies when stations report data across different time windows or measurement protocols.

Munich's August climate shows consistent patterns: the city averages highs of 24–25°C during mid-August, with historical extremes rarely exceeding 30°C. The warmest August 18th on record saw approximately 28°C; cooler years have produced readings around 20°C. These historical bounds establish the practical range within which the market's temperature brackets should cluster. The absence of any meaningful probability mass across available ranges suggests either that the market has not yet attracted sufficient liquidity to calibrate against comparable weather prediction markets, or that traders are awaiting meteorological forecasts closer to the settlement date.

Traders monitoring this contract should track European weather models released in early August 2026, particularly those from the German Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst), which typically provide reliable 10–14 day outlooks for Bavaria. Atmospheric pressure systems and any heat waves affecting central Europe in mid-August will be the primary drivers of actual temperature outcomes. The specificity of using airport station data rather than city-centre readings may also matter if localised conditions diverge meaningfully.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.