Highest temperature in Munich on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 19 August 2026, Munich Airport's weather station will record a daily maximum temperature in Celsius, with the market resolving to whichever range bracket contains that figure. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders are pricing in an extremely low likelihood of the outcome corresponding to the affirmative resolution band, though the specific temperature threshold defining that band remains unclear from available market documentation. This disconnect between market structure and probability assignment warrants scrutiny, as weather markets often reflect genuine uncertainty rather than near-certainty.

Munich's August climate provides a useful baseline for contextualising such forecasts. Historical data from the airport station shows August daily highs typically range between 24–27°C, with extremes occasionally reaching 30°C during heat waves. The 2003 European heat wave saw Munich record 37.3°C in August, whilst more recent years have seen August peaks of 29–31°C. The 0% probability currently priced suggests either the YES range sits well above plausible August temperatures, or the market has attracted minimal liquidity and reflects no genuine consensus.

Traders monitoring this contract should track European summer weather patterns as August 2026 approaches, particularly Atlantic pressure systems and any developing heat domes over continental Europe. The German Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst) will publish seasonal forecasts in the months prior, offering early signals about whether August 2026 is likely to run warm or cool relative to climatology. Resolution hinges entirely on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table from Munich Airport, making data-source verification critical on settlement day.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Munich on August 19? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.