Highest temperature in Munich on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 20 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Munich Airport Station will fall within one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary forecasts. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature threshold being wagered upon or expect conditions that fall outside the range in question.

Munich's August climate typically produces daily highs between 24–27°C, with occasional peaks reaching 28–30°C during heat waves. Historical data from the past decade shows that temperatures exceeding 30°C occur roughly once every two to three years in August, whilst readings above 32°C remain relatively rare at the airport station. The 0% probability reading indicates the market may be pricing in either an unusually cool August or a range threshold set above typical summer maxima. Comparable European prediction markets on August temperatures in Frankfurt and Vienna show modest divergence from sportsbook-style weather derivatives, which typically price August heat events with 15–25% implied probability depending on the specific threshold.

Traders should monitor European weather pattern forecasts released in late July and early August, particularly the position of high-pressure systems over central Europe. The German Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst) publishes extended outlooks approximately two weeks ahead, which historically correlate with final August temperatures. Any significant Atlantic blocking pattern or Saharan air mass incursion would shift probabilities materially, though such forecasts remain unreliable beyond ten days.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.