Highest temperature in Munich on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich Airport's daily maximum temperature on 21 August 2026 will be recorded and resolved against specific threshold ranges. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all outcomes, suggesting either insufficient liquidity or a technical issue with the contract's initial pricing. Resolution hinges on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures, a distinction that occasionally produces discrepancies when automated systems round or average readings differently.

August temperatures in Munich historically cluster between 24–28°C, with extremes reaching 30°C on roughly one in five days during the month. The city's continental climate produces warm afternoons, though summer heat waves have grown more frequent; the 2022 European heat event saw Munich exceed 35°C on multiple occasions. Comparable August days from 2015–2024 provide the most relevant baseline: median highs sit around 26°C, with the 90th percentile near 29°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer outcome definitions or treating this as a placeholder until nearer the settlement date.

No major weather forecasts extend reliably to August 2026, making current probability assessment speculative. Traders should monitor European summer climate patterns through 2025–2026, particularly any signals from Atlantic oscillation indices that influence Central European weather systems. The Weather Underground data source itself warrants verification; station maintenance or sensor recalibration at Munich Airport could affect recorded values. Cross-referencing with German meteorological authority (Deutscher Wetterdienst) readings may reveal material divergences before settlement.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Munich on August 21? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.