Highest temperature in Munich on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich’s highest temperature on 12 July 2026 will be measured at the Munich Airport Station, with settlement based on Wunderground’s official daily high in degrees Celsius. Today, BBC Weather reports a sunny day with a high of 28°C (83°F) at Munich International Airport, while AccuWeather forecasts July highs across the city ranging from 22°C to 31°C (72°F–87°F) [2][5]. The crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests the market currently believes no specific temperature bracket will be hit, though this may reflect unresolved range definitions rather than a literal impossibility of heat.

Historically, July in Munich sees average highs near 24°C (75°F), rarely exceeding 31°C (87°F), with the national record for Germany reaching 42.6°C in 2019 during a severe heatwave [1][6]. Comparable mid-July days in recent years, such as 12 July 2023, recorded 26°C at the airport, indicating that 28°C is plausible but not guaranteed [4]. Traders should monitor the German Weather Service (DWD) for any heatwave announcements, as sustained high-pressure systems over Central Europe can push temperatures beyond seasonal norms [9].

Key catalysts include the DWD’s daily weather bulletins and Wunderground’s real-time updates, which will determine the final settlement value. With the settlement window ending at 12:00 UTC on 12 July, traders must watch for any late-morning temperature spikes before the cutoff. Recent coverage of Germany’s 41.7°C record in 2022 underscores the volatility of summer heat in the region, making this contract sensitive to sudden atmospheric shifts [9]. Cross-platform odds may diverge if other markets offer narrower temperature ranges or different resolution sources.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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FAQ

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A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

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