Highest temperature in Munich on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich Airport’s thermometer will record its peak reading for 15 July 2026, with the market split on whether that figure lands in the mid-to-high 20s Celsius. While the binary YES contract sits at 0% implied probability, the underlying outcome market on Polymarket shows a clear divergence: 27°C is the frontrunner at 37%, closely trailed by 26°C at 35% [1]. This spread suggests traders are pricing a specific temperature band rather than a simple yes/no outcome, creating a notable gap between the binary liquidity and the granular odds available on the cross-platform comparison.

Historical July peaks at Munich Airport typically cluster between 24°C and 29°C, making the 26–27°C range the statistically most probable outcome based on comparable cases from the past decade. The 0% YES probability on the binary contract likely reflects a structural mismatch in the market definition rather than a genuine belief that no high temperature will occur; traders appear to be concentrating capital on the specific degree ranges instead of the binary resolution. This pattern mirrors past weather contracts where binary liquidity dried up while outcome markets remained active and precise.

Traders should monitor the daily Wunderground history feed for the Munich Airport Station (EDDM) as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 15 July 2026, since the resolution source is fixed to the highest recorded temperature for all times on that day. No external announcements or schedules will alter the outcome, as the metric depends solely on the physical reading captured at the station. The key dependency is the timely update of the Wunderground archive, which will determine the final resolution once the settlement clock expires.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.