Highest temperature in Munich on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich Airport Station will record its peak temperature for 17 July 2026, a single data point that determines settlement for this weather contract. The crowd currently assigns a 0% probability to the “YES” outcome, implying near-certainty that the temperature will fall outside the specific range being traded, despite the frontrunner on Polymarket favouring 29°C at 57% and 28°C at 31% for the absolute high [1]. This divergence between the binary market’s implied probability and the range-based market’s consensus suggests a misalignment in how traders interpret the settlement conditions or the specific temperature threshold in question.

Historical July highs at Munich Airport typically cluster between 26°C and 32°C, with 29°C representing a median peak rather than an extreme outlier. The current 0% YES probability is anomalous when compared to these comparable cases, as it contradicts the 57% likelihood assigned to 29°C on the broader platform [1]. Such a stark difference often indicates that the binary contract’s range is set below the expected median, rendering the “YES” outcome statistically improbable under current collective views, while the range market correctly identifies 29°C as the most probable absolute value.

Traders should monitor the live Wunderground history feed for the Munich Airport Station (EDDM) as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 17 July 2026, since this is the definitive resolution source [1]. Current conditions show Munich is mostly cloudy with a temperature of 61°F (approximately 16°C), which is significantly below the expected July peak, though afternoon highs often rise well above morning readings [2]. No specific weather announcements are pending, but the real-time update of the Polymarket odds to 57% for 29°C confirms that the market expects a warm day, making the 0% binary probability a notable outlier to watch before settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.