Highest temperature in NYC on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 10 August 2026, with settlement based on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The 2% implied probability suggests traders expect temperatures to remain below the threshold being priced, though the specific temperature range for this market is not detailed in available documentation.

New York City's August climate provides historical context for calibrating expectations. The city's average high in August sits around 27°C (81°F), with extreme heat events pushing into the low-to-mid 30s Celsius (mid-to-high 80s Fahrenheit). The record high for any August day in Central Park stands at 40°C (104°F), set in 1933, though LaGuardia typically records slightly cooler maxima than Manhattan's urban heat island. August 2024 saw New York experience a heat wave with highs reaching 32–34°C (90–93°F), whilst August 2023 remained closer to seasonal norms. The 2% probability implies the market is pricing a notably extreme outcome relative to typical August conditions.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasting updates from the National Weather Service and longer-range climate models as August 2026 approaches. La Niña or El Niño conditions, which influence North Atlantic weather patterns, will shape summer temperature anomalies. The specific temperature threshold triggering YES resolution remains unclear from available market documentation, creating ambiguity around whether the 2% reflects consensus on a genuinely rare event or reflects uncertainty about the settlement boundary itself. Cross-platform comparison data from other weather prediction markets or meteorological betting platforms would clarify whether this probability represents genuine divergence from analyst consensus or reflects market-specific liquidity constraints.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.