Highest temperature in NYC on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the peak temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 11 August 2026, with settlement determined by Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests traders are pricing in an expectation that the day's high will fall outside whichever temperature range this contract covers, though the specific range boundaries are not detailed in available market documentation.

New York City's August temperatures show consistent patterns across decades. Historical data from the National Weather Service indicates that daily highs in mid-August typically range between 78–88°F, with extremes occasionally reaching into the low 90s during heat waves. The city's record high for any August day stands at 102°F (set in 1933), whilst more recent August peaks have clustered in the 85–92°F band. The 0% probability currently priced suggests either an unusually narrow temperature band for this contract or trader consensus that conditions on that specific date will deviate markedly from seasonal norms.

Traders monitoring this contract should track seasonal weather forecasting updates as August 2026 approaches, particularly any signals from the Climate Prediction Center regarding Atlantic hurricane activity or heat dome formation across the northeastern United States. The National Weather Service typically issues extended outlooks 8–14 days in advance; these forecasts become more reliable within a week of the settlement date. Any significant divergence between this market's pricing and meteorological consensus would warrant examination, particularly if other prediction markets or weather-focused trading desks are pricing different probabilities for comparable temperature outcomes on that date.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on August 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.