Highest temperature in NYC on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The key real-world event is the day’s high temperature at LaGuardia Airport on 15 August 2026, with settlement tied to Weather Underground’s Daily Observations rather than the site’s summary high. Current weather coverage around New York shows a warm, humid stretch, with the airport already around the mid-70s to upper-70s Fahrenheit by late morning and earlier reporting pointing to highs in the upper 80s to near 90 in the city metro during the same period[3][2][10].

Against that backdrop, a 0% YES price looks out of line with the kind of summer heat that typically drives these contracts into the mid-80s or higher, especially when recent LaGuardia history on Weather Underground has shown daily highs in the mid-80s under mostly cloudy conditions[5]. The more relevant comparison is not an abstract city forecast but the airport observation itself; if the day warms as expected, the contract’s implied probability appears to lag both the reported meteorological setup and the temperature bins usually seen in comparable August New York weather events[5][8].

The main catalysts are the afternoon peak, any shower or thunderstorm timing, and whether sea-breeze or cloud cover caps the airport’s maximum before early evening. Traders should watch the National Weather Service airport forecast update cycle and the Weather Underground Daily Observations table, because the market settles on the recorded station high there, not on the broader “feels like” or summary numbers[3][5]. The latest public coverage around the region has stressed heat advisories, but also noted that highs were expected to sit below the heat-index figures, which can create a gap between public perception and the actual bin that resolves the market[2][11].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.