Highest temperature in NYC on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City's maximum temperature on 16 August 2026 will be recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders are pricing in either exceptionally low confidence in extreme heat or a misalignment between this contract's temperature thresholds and realistic August conditions in the region.

August temperatures at LaGuardia typically peak between 82–88°F, with historical records showing the station has recorded highs exceeding 95°F on roughly 10–15 days per decade during the month. The 0% probability across prediction markets contrasts sharply with the non-negligible likelihood of moderately elevated temperatures; this divergence likely reflects either the specific temperature range this contract covers (which remains unspecified in available documentation) or trader uncertainty about resolution mechanics tied to the Daily Observations versus Day High & Low distinction. Historical August heat waves in the Northeast have produced readings above 95°F in 2012, 2016, and 2022, establishing precedent for sustained warm periods during this window.

Traders monitoring this contract should track seasonal climate forecasts released by NOAA in early August 2026, which typically provide 6–10 day outlooks for temperature anomalies across the Northeast. The Atlantic hurricane season and any tropical systems approaching the region in mid-August could suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation, whilst high-pressure systems anchored over the Mid-Atlantic would drive readings upward. Weather Underground's data quality and any station maintenance schedules at LaGuardia should be verified before settlement, given the explicit reliance on their Daily Observations table.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.