Highest temperature in NYC on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 19 August 2026 will determine this market's resolution, with the specific measurement drawn from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders must commit to their positions before the full day's temperature range is established.

August temperatures at LaGuardia typically peak between 82–88°F, with historical August averages around 79°F. The 0% crowd probability suggests the market may be calibrated to an unusually narrow or high temperature band. Comparable August days at the airport show considerable variance: the 30-year August average high sits near 82°F, but individual days regularly exceed 85°F, and heat waves have pushed readings above 90°F. The 2023 summer saw multiple days above 90°F across the Northeast, whilst cooler Augusts have produced highs in the low 80s. This historical spread indicates substantial uncertainty in any specific daily outcome.

The National Weather Service Northeast office issues extended forecasts roughly 10 days ahead, with meaningful refinement arriving 3–5 days before 19 August. Tropical activity tracking, jet stream positioning, and Atlantic sea-surface temperatures will shape August conditions across the region. Recent climate data from NOAA shows the Atlantic warming trend continuing into summer 2026, though seasonal forecasts remain inherently uncertain at this distance. Traders should monitor late-July and early-August weather patterns for signals about whether mid-August will favour heat accumulation or cooler maritime influence over the New York area.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on August 19? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.