Highest temperature in NYC on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 1 July 2026, with current market odds implying a near-zero chance of the temperature exceeding 92°F. Historical climate normals for LaGuardia on this date show an average maximum of 85°F, with the record high reaching 100°F in 2021, suggesting that while extreme heat is possible, it remains statistically rare for early July. Recent forecasts from AccuWeather indicate daily highs in July 2026 will range between 81°F and 99°F, with the average hovering around 88°F, reinforcing the market’s conservative pricing.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climatological report for LaGuardia, which will be the official resolution source, alongside real-time updates from Wunderground. A recent forecast from KTTC TV meteorologist Ted Schmidt predicts isolated thunderstorms on 1 July with highs in the 80s, large hail, and strong wind gusts—conditions that typically suppress peak temperatures rather than elevate them. Any sudden shift in the forecast, such as a heat dome moving in or a break in cloud cover, could alter the outcome, but current data supports the market’s 0% YES probability for temperatures above 92°F.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.