Highest temperature in NYC on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City’s LaGuardia Airport will record its peak temperature for 15 July 2026, with the market resolving to the Fahrenheit range containing that day’s highest reading. The crowd currently implies a 0% probability for the “YES” outcome, yet Polymarket data shows the frontrunner is 98–99°F at 41%, followed by 96–97°F at 20%[1]. This stark divergence suggests the “YES” contract may be mispriced or refers to a specific threshold not met by the leading temperature ranges, while the broader market expects a hot midsummer day consistent with NYC’s July climate patterns.

Historical records from the National Weather Service for LaGuardia show frequent July highs in the 95–100°F band, with several years exceeding 98°F[2]. In comparable midsummer periods, temperatures have routinely breached 97°F, making the 98–99°F range a statistically plausible outcome rather than an outlier. The 0% implied probability for “YES” appears inconsistent with this thermal baseline, especially when the leading odds favour ranges that would typically satisfy a high-temperature condition.

Traders should monitor daily forecasts from the National Weather Service’s New York office and real-time updates on Wunderground, the official resolution source[1]. Key catalysts include the 15 July 00:00–23:59 local temperature log, any heat advisories issued by the city, and the final Wunderground entry for KLGA. With settlement ending 2026-07-15T12:00:00Z, the window closes before midnight UTC, meaning the last recorded hourly high will determine the outcome. Cross-platform odds on Polymarket currently favour 98–99°F, contrasting sharply with the “YES” contract’s zero probability.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.