Highest temperature in NYC on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

A strong summer heatwave is gripping the Northeastern United States, with New York City forecast to reach 97°F on 16 July 2026 at the LaGuardia Airport Station. This intense period of hot, humid conditions places the highest temperature outcome squarely in the mid-to-upper 90s Fahrenheit range, aligning with the current crowd-implied probability of 69% YES for the market. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on the settlement date, capturing the peak daily reading recorded by Wunderground.

Historical context frames this probability as robust, given that July 2026 marks the first time in 12 years NYC is expected to hit 100 degrees, with humidity pushing the heat index near 110°F [3]. Comparable heat events in the region typically sustain highs above 95°F for multiple days before a cold front weakens the high-pressure system, which is forecast to arrive only after 16 July [2]. The market’s frontrunner outcome of 92–93°F sits at 33%, while 90–91°F holds 25%, suggesting traders are pricing in a slightly cooler peak than the 97°F forecast, creating a divergence between sportsbook-style lines and prediction-market implied probabilities [1].

Traders should monitor the weakening of the high-pressure system and the arrival of the western cold front, which is expected to bring clouds and cooler air by 17 July [2]. Any deviation in the timing of this front could extend the heatwave, pushing temperatures higher than current forecasts. The resolution source remains Wunderground’s daily history for KLGA, where the gear icon allows switching between Fahrenheit and Celsius for verification.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 16? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.