Highest temperature in NYC on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

The temperature at LaGuardia Airport is the reference point here, and the contract settles on the highest reading recorded on 23 July 2026, which makes the late-afternoon heating profile more important than any single forecast headline. Polymarket currently prices 80-81°F at 72%, with 82-83°F next at 19%, so the crowd is strongly concentrated in the low-80s rather than the upper-70s or mid-80s.[1]

That distribution is consistent with New York’s summer climatology, where July highs are often clustered in the upper 80s or low 80s, but it still leaves room for meaningful drift if cloud cover, sea breeze, or passing showers suppress the peak. A recent July heat episode across the eastern US showed how quickly regional extremes can spike when a ridge holds, with long-standing records broken across multiple East Coast locations.[2] Compared with that kind of broad heat signal, this contract is narrower and more location-specific, so the key question is whether LaGuardia gets full sun and weak marine influence during the warmest part of the day.

Cross-platform comparison is limited by available public pricing, but the current picture is clear: prediction markets are leaning decisively to 80-81°F, while no sportsbook-style line has been quoted in the supplied sources, and there is no sign of a split consensus broad enough to challenge that band. The main catalysts are the hourly forecast revisions from the National Weather Service, any change in wind direction off the harbour, and the timing of afternoon cloud or thunderstorm development; because settlement uses the recorded high at LaGuardia rather than citywide averages, even a small forecast miss matters.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.