Highest temperature in NYC on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

The National Weather Service will record the peak temperature at LaGuardia Airport on 24 July 2026, with settlement determined by historical data archived on Wunderground. This represents a straightforward weather measurement contract with no ambiguity in the underlying metric—the single highest reading across all hours on that calendar date, expressed in Fahrenheit.

July temperatures at LaGuardia have historically clustered between 78°F and 88°F for daily highs, with extreme readings above 95°F occurring roughly once per decade during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either pricing in confidence that the market's temperature bands exclude realistic outcomes, or the contract has received minimal trading activity. Comparable weather markets on established platforms typically show non-zero probabilities across all plausible temperature ranges for a given location and season, indicating potential mispricing if this market's bands are reasonably calibrated to historical variance.

Traders should monitor National Weather Service seasonal forecasts released in early July 2026, which will provide the first substantive signal about whether anomalous heat is expected for the Northeast during that week. Atlantic hurricane activity and jet-stream positioning in late July can materially shift regional temperatures; the Climate Prediction Center's 6–10 day outlooks, updated weekly, will offer the most actionable near-term guidance. Any significant divergence between this market's implied probabilities and consensus forecasts from meteorological sources would warrant scrutiny of the underlying temperature bands themselves.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.