Highest temperature in NYC on July 26?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York’s hottest reading on 26 July at LaGuardia will settle this contract, and the current crowd price implies an unusually low chance of a high-end outcome, with 0% YES showing in the market data you provided even though a separate Polymarket view on the same event places the strongest interest in the mid-80s Fahrenheit band. That divergence matters: the live book is effectively saying the tail risk of a very hot reading has been priced out, while the broader prediction-market cluster still leaves the low-to-mid 80s as the central expectation.[1]

Historical comparables point to how sensitive this kind of contract is to local heat, cloud cover and sea breeze rather than just city-wide averages. The available weather snapshots for New York on the same date show forecasts ranging from the upper 70s to around 87°F across different models, which is consistent with a broad but not extreme dispersion; in that context, a zero-cent Yes line is hard to reconcile with a market that still sees 82–85°F as the modal zone.[2][3]

For traders, the main catalysts are the day-of forecast updates, any heat advisories, and whether afternoon convection, coastal winds or lingering cloud cover cap the maximum at LaGuardia before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. Recent heat-wave coverage has emphasised that New York can still produce very high peaks when a heat dome sets in, with the hottest hours typically running from late morning into mid-afternoon, so late forecast revisions around that window are the key dependency to watch.[4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 26? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.