Highest temperature in NYC on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the peak temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 28 July 2026, measured in Fahrenheit. Settlement relies on historical weather data from Weather Underground's station records, which capture hourly readings throughout the day. The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's current state rather than any meteorological certainty; prediction markets on specific weather outcomes typically show low probabilities until nearer to the event date when forecast models gain precision.

New York's July temperatures have historically ranged between 75°F and 95°F at LaGuardia, with extreme heat events pushing toward the low-to-mid 90s. The National Weather Service records show that 28 July has seen highs between 82°F and 91°F across the past two decades, establishing a baseline for what constitutes typical versus exceptional conditions for that calendar date. Traders should reference climatological patterns for late July in the Northeast, where heat domes occasionally drive readings above 90°F, though such occurrences remain statistically infrequent.

The primary catalyst affecting this market's resolution will be the seasonal weather pattern developing in early-to-mid July 2026. Long-range climate models and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's monthly outlooks, typically issued in late June, will provide initial guidance on whether anomalous heat is likely. Traders should monitor whether any Atlantic tropical systems or high-pressure systems are forecast to influence the Northeast during that week, as these directly influence daily temperature ranges. Current prediction-market pricing at 0% suggests participants expect typical summer conditions rather than an exceptional heat event.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.