Highest temperature in NYC on July 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The relevant real-world event is the highest temperature reached at LaGuardia Airport in New York City on 30 July 2026, measured in Fahrenheit and settled from Wunderground’s daily history page. The crowd is pricing **0% Yes**, which is consistent with a contract that has already passed the observation day and is awaiting finalisation rather than a live weather guess.

Historical context points to a city that can produce sharp summer spikes, but truly extreme readings are uncommon. New York’s long-run heat record is far above normal July conditions, with Central Park’s all-time high at 106°F and LaGuardia having reported 107°F on 3 July 1966[5][16]. For a late-July reading at an airport station, the more relevant comparison is typical monthly warmth: AccuWeather’s recent July values for New York sit around the upper 80s, with 30 July shown near 88°F/69°F for one recent cycle and 87°F/70°F for another[1]. That makes outcomes in the 80s or low 90s structurally more plausible than anything near record territory, which helps explain why broad market pricing would usually cluster well below the upper bins.

For traders, the key catalyst is not a fresh forecast model but the final daily observation from Wunderground’s LaGuardia station page, since the contract cannot resolve until the day’s data are finalised[6]. The main cross-platform check is whether sportsbook-style weather pricing, if available, tracks that same late-day observation window; in practice, prediction markets tend to move to near-certainty only once the official history page has locked in the high. With the market already at 0% Yes, the remaining risk is mostly operational: late data updates, station reporting corrections, or an outcome range that differs from expectations if the airport briefly printed a higher midday maximum than nearby Manhattan stations suggested.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.