Highest temperature in NYC on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the peak daytime temperature recorded at New York City’s LaGuardia Airport on 5 July 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. Current crowd-implied probability for the 84–85°F range sits at 0% YES, despite other platforms assigning 34.5% odds to that same bracket, revealing a stark divergence between prediction-market consensus and cross-platform odds. This discrepancy suggests either a liquidity gap or a mispricing in the current market, especially given the thin $5,602 volume driving the narrow two-degree spread on rival exchanges[2].

Historically, LaGuardia has experienced extreme heat in early July, including a record-breaking 102°F peak on a recent Thursday that shattered daily high records, with midnight temperatures reaching 94°F—breaking the 2013 benchmark of 93°F[1][5]. July 2026 forecasts for LaGuardia indicate daily highs between 81°F and 99°F, with overnight lows in the 70s, suggesting that 84–85°F is well within the plausible range, not an outlier[4]. Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s Central Park forecast updates and any sudden shifts in dew points, which directly influence heat index values and peak temperature outcomes[9]. Recent reports confirm LaGuardia hit 104°F alongside Newark, reinforcing that extreme heat is active and not anomalous for this period[9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 5? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.