Highest temperature in NYC on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 6 July 2026, a date currently marked by a 0% crowd-implied probability for the “YES” outcome in the prediction market. This near-zero stance diverges sharply from historical precedent: LaGuardia has hit 104°F on 2 July 2026 and 107°F on 3 July 1966, with midnight temperatures recently reaching 94°F—breaking a 2013 record [1][8]. Such extremes suggest that a 0% probability may reflect a mispricing rather than a genuine climatic impossibility, especially as July 6 historically falls within New York’s peak heat window.

Traders should monitor the continuation of the current Extreme Heat Warning, which remains active through Saturday with heat indices forecast between 105–115°F [2]. A 60% chance of storms on 4 July could disrupt the fireworks and temporarily cool conditions, but the forecast insists no real relief will arrive before Saturday, with highs in the upper 90s feeling like 100°F or more [2]. The key dependency is whether the heat wave persists into 6 July; if it does, temperatures could again approach or exceed 100°F, making the current 0% probability increasingly untenable. Analyst consensus on similar climate contracts has recently shifted upward as heat-wave data accumulates, underscoring a meaningful divergence between prediction-market odds and emerging weather realities.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 6? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.