Highest temperature in NYC on June 11?

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Market context

The National Weather Service will record the peak temperature at LaGuardia Airport on 11 June 2026, with settlement determined by historical data archived on Weather Underground. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this contract or systematically underweighting certain temperature ranges relative to seasonal norms for New York City in mid-June.

New York's June temperatures typically range between 75°F and 85°F, with historical highs occasionally reaching into the low 90s during heat waves. The 30-year normal high for 11 June sits around 78°F according to National Weather Service records. Comparable early-summer heat events—such as June 2021's anomalous 96°F reading or June 2019's 89°F peak—remain outliers rather than baseline expectations. The current zero probability across all temperature bands suggests either thin liquidity or a fundamental mismatch between market participants' confidence in forecasting and the inherent uncertainty of weather prediction eighteen months forward.

Traders should monitor the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies through spring 2026, as these influence whether the Northeast experiences cooler or warmer-than-average conditions during early summer. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's seasonal outlooks, updated quarterly, will provide the most substantive catalyst for reassessing probabilities as June approaches. Real-time forecasting becomes reliable only within 10–14 days of the settlement date, meaning significant probability shifts should not be expected until late May 2026.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.