Highest temperature in NYC on June 12?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The settlement hinges on the single highest temperature reading at LaGuardia Airport on 12 June 2026, measured in Fahrenheit and recorded via Weather Underground's historical database. The 100% implied probability reflects near-certainty that *some* temperature will be recorded that day—a mathematical certainty rather than a forecast of any particular range. This market's structure differs fundamentally from typical weather prediction markets, which estimate whether conditions will fall within specific bands; here, the outcome is guaranteed to resolve to whichever temperature bracket contains the peak reading, making the probability ceiling inherent rather than predictive.

June temperatures at LaGuardia historically cluster between 75°F and 85°F as daily highs, with occasional spikes into the low 90s during heat waves. The 30-year average high for mid-June sits around 79°F. Extreme readings—above 95°F or below 70°F—occur in roughly 5–10% of June days at the airport, providing a baseline for evaluating the distribution of possible outcomes across available temperature ranges. Recent years show increasing frequency of days exceeding 85°F in early summer, though single-day volatility remains substantial.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service's extended forecast as the settlement date approaches, particularly any heat dome or cold front predictions for the Northeast in early June 2026. Upper-air pattern shifts and Atlantic sea-surface temperatures in May will signal whether conditions favour above-normal or below-normal temperatures. The market's current pricing structure will likely shift materially once deterministic forecasts become available within 10–14 days of the settlement window.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 12? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.