Highest temperature in NYC on June 21?

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Market context

LaGuardia Airport’s afternoon high on 21 June will be the settlement point, and the key market question is not whether New York will be warm, but whether the day finishes in the low-80s or pushes into the mid-80s. Polymarket’s current contract distribution is tightly centred on **82–83°F at 45%**, with **84–85°F at 26%**, while broader forecast language from AccuWeather and numerical models points to **79–84°F** for the city, which is consistent with a modestly warm, not extreme, outcome.[1][4] The fact that this market settles on LaGuardia rather than a citywide composite matters: airport readings can differ from central Manhattan, so traders are really pricing the specific station’s peak, not “New York City” in the abstract.[1]

That pricing looks broadly in line with seasonal comparables. AccuWeather’s June outlook puts New York’s average high around **83°F**, and climate datasets show late-June highs commonly landing in the low-to-mid 80s, which helps explain why the contract is concentrated around the 82–85°F bands rather than the extremes.[4][7] Against that backdrop, a **0% YES** crowd price on any single alternative band is not unusual in a fragmented temperature-range market: if traders see the distribution clustered across adjacent buckets, the implied probability of an exact bin can stay near zero even when the underlying weather call is straightforward.

The main catalysts are the late-cycle model updates and any National Weather Service heat messaging, because small shifts in cloud cover, humidity, or wind can move the day’s peak by a degree or two. Polymarket’s own description says recent AccuWeather and numerical models are the basis for the current range, and that revisions count until the next day’s first datapoint is published, so the final settlement is sensitive to how the afternoon is observed and recorded rather than to early-evening adjustments.[1] The only meaningful cross-platform divergence to watch is whether sportsbook-style weather lines, if offered, stay close to the same low-80s cluster or drift higher on heat-warning headlines; at present, the publicly visible market evidence is much tighter than the broad seasonal forecast band.[1][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.