Highest temperature in NYC on June 24?

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Market context

The real-world event centres on the peak temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport in New York City on 24 June 2026, with the market resolving to the Fahrenheit range containing that highest reading. Current crowd-implied probability for the "YES" outcome sits at 0%, yet this stark figure diverges sharply from the prevailing analyst consensus and cross-platform odds. Polymarket data indicates a 99% chance the temperature will land between 82–83°F, with National Weather Service models pointing toward an 82–85°F range, suggesting the 0% figure may reflect a mispriced contract or a specific binary condition rather than the broader temperature forecast[2].

Historical precedents for early June in New York City typically see highs in the mid-70s, but recent years have demonstrated significant volatility, with June 2026 already featuring an extreme heatwave where temperatures soared to 96°F on 4 June and 97°F on 5 June, far exceeding seasonal norms[3]. This pattern of record-breaking heat frames the current probability, indicating that while a 0% implied chance for a specific outcome seems low, the region is currently experiencing a period of anomalous warmth where temperatures consistently breach the 80°F threshold, making the 82–83°F range the most statistically probable outcome according to ensemble spreads[1].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service's daily updates and model guidance for any shifts in boundary-layer mixing or dew points, which are critical catalysts for temperature fluctuations in this forecast window[2]. The timing of any weak frontal passage remains a key dependency, as ensemble spreads arise mainly from differences in predicted mixing and humidity levels, producing tight clustering of market-implied odds around 76–81°F in comparable contracts[1]. With the settlement window ending on 24 June 2026, real-time odds will continue to reflect the collective view of what is most likely, demanding close attention to the latest meteorological data as the date approaches[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.