Highest temperature in NYC on June 26?

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Market context

The real-world event at hand is the recorded peak temperature at LaGuardia Airport on 26 June 2026, which will determine the settlement of this weather contract. Historical data for early June in New York shows daily highs typically ranging between 77°F and 92°F, with the average high sitting near 84°F[4]. Recent similar contracts, such as the 11 June event, resolved at 94–95°F, indicating that extreme heat spikes are possible but not the norm for this period[1]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a "YES" outcome suggests the market expects the temperature to fall below a specific threshold, likely aligning with the seasonal average rather than the record-breaking outliers seen in late June or July[7].

Traders should monitor incoming forecasts for cold fronts and thunderstorm activity, which have recently disrupted heatwaves in the Northeast. A cold front is anticipated to bring scattered thunderstorms and cooler air to the region, potentially suppressing temperatures below the 90°F mark that often defines high-heat thresholds[2]. Humidity levels are also a critical dependency; rising moisture can make conditions feel stickier even if temperatures remain moderate, though the forecast suggests a surge in heat intensity only after mid-week, not on the settlement date[2]. The divergence between sportsbook lines and prediction-market implied probabilities highlights a lack of consensus on whether the upcoming cold front will fully negate the summery conditions that have persisted through the weekend[5]. Analyst consensus leans towards temperatures remaining in the low 90s or below, rather than the extreme highs seen in previous weeks, making the 0% probability a reflection of this tempered outlook[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.