Highest temperature in NYC on June 6?

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Market context

The National Weather Service will record the peak temperature at LaGuardia Airport on 6 June 2026, with settlement determined by historical data archived on Weather Underground. This single-day weather event depends entirely on atmospheric conditions over New York City during the settlement window, which closes at midday UTC. The market currently shows zero crowd conviction across all temperature ranges, suggesting either genuine uncertainty about the specific outcome or insufficient trader participation in this niche weather contract.

June temperatures at LaGuardia typically range between 75°F and 85°F, based on thirty-year climate normals. Historical June 6th data shows considerable year-to-year variation; the station has recorded highs between 68°F and 88°F on this calendar date since records began. Early summer heat waves in the Northeast can push temperatures into the low 90s, whilst cool Atlantic systems occasionally suppress readings into the upper 60s. The current zero probability across all ranges suggests the market has attracted minimal liquidity rather than reflecting genuine consensus that no temperature will occur.

Traders should monitor National Weather Service forecasts released in the five days preceding 6 June 2026, which will provide increasingly precise temperature predictions. Seasonal patterns favour above-normal temperatures during early June in roughly 45 per cent of years, whilst below-normal conditions occur in similar frequency. Upper-level atmospheric patterns and sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic will determine whether subtropical air masses influence the region or whether cooler Canadian systems prevail during the settlement period.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.