Highest temperature in NYC on June 7?

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Market context

The National Weather Service will record the peak temperature at LaGuardia Airport on 7 June 2026, with settlement tied to Wunderground's historical data archive for that station. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the actual high to fall outside whatever temperature range this market's resolution brackets specify—a positioning that warrants scrutiny given the absence of extreme weather forecasts for early June in New York.

Historical June temperatures at LaGuardia cluster between 75°F and 85°F, with records reaching into the low 90s during heat waves. The station's all-time June high stands at 96°F, set in 1994. Early-June conditions typically reflect late spring patterns rather than peak summer heat, making outlier temperatures less probable than mid-to-late summer extremes. The current crowd reading of zero probability implies either that the market's temperature brackets are positioned at genuinely unlikely thresholds, or that traders have discounted the possibility of unseasonable warmth entirely.

The National Weather Service issues its extended forecast roughly ten days before the settlement date, with meaningful refinement arriving five to seven days prior. Traders should monitor late May atmospheric patterns—specifically any ridge of high pressure establishing itself over the northeastern United States—as this would be the primary catalyst for above-normal temperatures. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and the position of the jet stream in early June will shape whether conditions favour typical spring weather or an early summer heat spike. Current seasonal models from NOAA show no exceptional warmth signal for that week, though such forecasts carry substantial uncertainty at the fourteen-day horizon.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.