Highest temperature in Paris on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport’s hottest reading on 1 August 2026 will decide the contract, and the market is currently pricing in **0% YES**, which is a stark outlier versus the venue’s own historical August pattern. Paris’s early-August climate norm is in the mid-20s Celsius: one climatology source puts 1 August average highs around 27.3°C, while broader August averages cluster near 25–26°C[4][12]. That makes the contract’s probability profile unusual rather than obviously impossible, because the issue is not whether Paris can reach the relevant range, but whether the day’s *maximum* lands inside the specific bucket used for settlement.

Historically, the market’s leading outcomes have tended to sit around the upper-20s Celsius, with the current crowd view still anchored by 28°C as the front-runner at 70%, followed by 29°C at 19%[3]. That spread suggests traders are treating a warm but not exceptional day as the base case, which is consistent with August norms and with the city’s record heat history showing that far higher extremes are possible when broader European heatwaves develop[6][14]. Against that backdrop, a 0% YES quote implies either a pricing anomaly, an assumption that the relevant bucket is effectively off-market, or an expectation that the eventual observed high will fall outside the selected range.

For catalysts, the main variables are the short-range forecast into 1 August, the evolution of any late-summer heat ridge over western Europe, and how the Paris-Le Bourget station reports the day’s maximum to Wunderground, since that is the resolution source[2][13]. AccuWeather’s August outlook for Paris shows daily highs broadly in the low- to low-mid 20s Celsius, which supports a moderate-temperature baseline rather than an extreme one[2]. In a cross-platform read, the available market data points to a live discrepancy between the Polymarket price structure and the zeroed YES probability, while the weather outlook itself looks closer to a normal August day than to a heat spike[2][3][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.