Highest temperature in Paris on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Paris-Le Bourget Airport weather station will record a daily high temperature on 14 August 2026, with this market requiring settlement against the Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary section on Weather Underground. The crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders are pricing in a near-certain outcome within a specific temperature band, though the resolution mechanism's emphasis on granular data sourcing introduces potential for discrepancy between casual weather forecasts and the formal station record.

August temperatures at Paris-Le Bourget historically cluster between 24–28°C, with extremes ranging from 15°C to 36°C across the past three decades. The 2003 European heatwave produced readings above 38°C, whilst cooler August days have dipped to single digits during unsettled Atlantic systems. The current 0% probability reading suggests the market has effectively ruled out certain temperature thresholds entirely, a positioning that warrants scrutiny given the station's documented variability and the two-year forecast horizon before settlement.

Traders monitoring this contract should track European summer weather patterns through 2025–2026, particularly Atlantic ridge positioning and any anomalous warming signals from seasonal climate outlooks. Météo-France publishes monthly forecasts and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts issues extended-range guidance; divergence between these sources and the market's current pricing would indicate either mispricing or genuine consensus on atmospheric conditions. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on the resolution date, creating a hard deadline for any last-minute observational data corrections from Wunderground's station network.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.