Highest temperature in Paris on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget is set to record its peak temperature for 12 July 2026, with the market currently pricing a 0% chance of any outcome below the implied threshold, despite historical July highs in Paris typically reaching 29–31°C and rarely exceeding 38°C [2][4]. The 0% YES probability reflects a near-universal consensus that the temperature will fall within a specific higher range, aligning with Polymarket’s frontrunner of 35°C at 48% and 36°C at 47%, suggesting traders expect a significant heatwave rather than average summer conditions [1].

Historical extremes frame this divergence: while Paris recorded 42.4°C on 25 July 2019, southern France hit 45.9°C in 2022, indicating that 35–36°C is plausible but not unprecedented during intense European heatwaves [3][4]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for lower ranges contrasts sharply with the 95% combined probability for 35°C and 36°C on Polymarket, highlighting a meaningful split between sportsbook-style binary odds and multi-outcome prediction markets.

Traders should monitor Météo-France’s red heat-wave alerts and real-time Wunderground data for Paris-Le Bourget, as the settlement relies exclusively on this station’s daily maximum [3][8]. With France already experiencing record-breaking heat in June 2026, including the nation’s hottest day ever at 43.8°C, the catalyst for this market is the persistence of the current heatwave into mid-July [7][8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.