Highest temperature in Paris on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris faces a critical heat check on 13 July 2026, as traders assess the likelihood of extreme temperatures at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station. The current crowd-implied probability for any specific high-temperature outcome sits at 0% YES, yet cross-platform data reveals a stark divergence: Polymarket assigns a 46% chance to 34°C and 28% to 35°C, suggesting the zero probability on this contract reflects a listing anomaly rather than genuine market consensus [1].

Historical extremes frame this discrepancy, with Paris recording 42.4°C on 25 July 2019, while southern France recently hit 45.9°C during the nation’s hottest day ever [2][3]. These precedents indicate that mid-July highs in the 34–35°C range are statistically probable, making the 0% implied probability an outlier against both weather history and active trading lines on competing platforms.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, and watch for Météo-France heatwave alerts as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC [1][10]. Recent red-alert heatwave coverage in June 2026 confirms Europe remains under severe thermal stress, a key catalyst that could rapidly shift odds if temperatures approach the 2019 Paris record [10]. The divergence between the 0% line and Polymarket’s 46% frontrunner offers a clear arbitrage signal for those comparing cross-platform odds.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on July 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.