Highest temperature in Paris on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

The relevant real-world event is the **highest recorded temperature at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 23 July 2026**, with settlement tied to the day’s maximum in Wunderground’s history page for that station. The market is currently pricing a **100%** chance of **25°C**, with the next bracket, **21°C or below**, at **0%**, so the implied distribution is far tighter than the underlying weather uncertainty would usually justify[1].

That pricing sits in mild tension with public weather context. A late-July Paris climatology often centres on the mid-20s Celsius, but recent Paris forecasts have pointed to warmer-than-average conditions, including high-20s readings in the region and a separate July outlook that discussed highs around 26°C, while one July 20–26 forecast put Île-de-France between **15°C and 28°C** on 23 July[2][3][4]. By comparison, the market’s 100% concentration in a single 25°C bucket leaves little room for either a cooler outcome or a brief spike above it, which is notable given that Paris summer temperatures can still vary meaningfully day to day[2][3].

For traders, the main catalysts are the **station observation itself**, the **official daily high on Wunderground**, and any late-day weather evolution around the Paris basin before the settlement window closes at **12:00 UTC**. In cross-platform terms, the contrast is stark: the prediction market is fully anchored to 25°C, while broadly available weather forecasts still allow a spread of outcomes around that level, suggesting the contract is being treated as effectively resolved by consensus rather than by live meteorology[1][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Paris on July 23? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.