Highest temperature in Paris on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 24 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station will determine which temperature range resolves as correct. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on that date, capturing the full calendar day's peak reading. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0%, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific range or minimal trading activity on this contract.

Historical July temperatures at Le Bourget provide the essential benchmark. Over the past two decades, peak July temperatures in Paris have ranged between 25°C and 38°C, with an average high around 26–27°C. The 2003 European heat wave saw readings exceed 38°C; more recently, July 2022 recorded peaks near 32°C. The 0% probability reading appears disconnected from typical seasonal variation, indicating either the market has not yet attracted sufficient liquidity or traders are awaiting clarification on the specific temperature bands available for settlement.

Traders should monitor medium-range weather forecasts beginning in early July 2026, as these become reliable roughly 10–14 days ahead. Anomalous heat patterns, Atlantic pressure systems, or Saharan air masses moving northward would be the primary catalysts shifting expectations. The Météo-France outlook and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble models will be critical reference points. Wunderground's historical data feed, which serves as the official resolution source, updates daily and remains accessible throughout the settlement window, allowing real-time verification as the date approaches.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.