Highest temperature in Paris on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 27 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will determine which temperature band resolves this market. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on that date, capturing the full diurnal cycle for the day. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% YES, suggesting traders are either awaiting clarity on the specific temperature thresholds available or treating this as a placeholder market pending full range definition.

Historical July temperatures at Le Bourget show a mean high of 25–26°C, with extremes ranging from 18°C in cooler years to 38°C during heat waves. The 2003 European heat event produced readings above 35°C across the Île-de-France region; more recently, July 2022 saw peak temperatures near 32°C in the Paris metropolitan area. These precedents matter because they establish the plausible spread: a typical summer day clusters in the mid-20s, whilst exceptional heat pushes toward the mid-30s. The 0% probability reading likely reflects incomplete market setup rather than trader conviction that no temperature will be recorded.

Traders monitoring this contract should watch European weather forecasting updates from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) as July 2026 approaches. Seasonal patterns—including the Atlantic Oscillation and Mediterranean high-pressure systems—will shape whether the day trends toward typical summer conditions or anomalous heat. The settlement mechanism via Wunderground's historical archive is straightforward, removing ambiguity once the date passes. Cross-platform comparison with sportsbooks offering weather derivatives or longer-dated climate indices may reveal whether institutional traders are pricing systematic summer warming into their positions.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.