Highest temperature in Paris on June 6?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 6 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will determine which range this market settles into. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, capturing the full calendar day's peak temperature as logged by Wunderground's historical weather data for that station.

Early June in the Paris region typically sees daytime highs between 20–24°C, with occasional warm spells pushing into the upper 20s. The 0% crowd probability across prediction markets suggests traders are either uncertain about the exact range boundaries or treating this as a straightforward seasonal forecast with limited tail-risk appeal. Historical June data from Le Bourget shows temperatures rarely exceed 28°C in the first week of the month, though heat waves have occurred; the 2003 European heat event and the 2022 summer spike both produced anomalous readings. Without access to the specific temperature thresholds this market uses, traders should cross-reference comparable weather derivatives and seasonal forecasts from Météo-France to calibrate expectations against the implied probability floor.

Meteorological forecasts for early June 2026 remain unavailable at present, making current pricing largely speculative. Traders monitoring this contract should watch for updated seasonal outlooks from European weather services in late April and May, which typically refine confidence intervals for early summer temperatures. Any significant Atlantic pressure system or heat dome formation in late May would shift probabilities materially, as would official forecasts from major weather agencies closer to the settlement date.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on June 6? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.