Highest temperature in Paris on May 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will settle this market into one of several defined ranges. The settlement relies on historical weather data from Wunderground, capturing the peak daily temperature in Celsius across all hours of that date. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0%, suggesting traders have not yet positioned meaningfully on any temperature band, despite the market's May 2026 window being within the medium-term forecasting horizon.

Paris typically experiences late-spring temperatures between 18–24°C in late May, with historical highs occasionally reaching 27–28°C during warm spells. The 0% crowd probability across all ranges indicates either minimal trading activity or systematic underpricing relative to seasonal norms. Comparable European airport weather markets show traders often cluster positions around climatological medians rather than extremes; divergence between sportsbook weather derivatives (where available) and prediction-market odds on temperature bands would signal meaningful mispricing, though such cross-platform comparison data remains sparse for this specific contract.

Traders monitoring this market should track European weather pattern forecasts as May 2026 approaches, particularly Atlantic high-pressure systems that drive warm continental air into northern France. The Météo-France seasonal outlook and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble models will provide increasingly reliable guidance within 10–14 days of settlement. Any early-May heatwave across western Europe would shift probability mass toward higher temperature ranges; conversely, persistent low-pressure systems would favour cooler outcomes. Settlement finalisation depends on Wunderground's historical data availability, typically confirmed within 48 hours of the observation date.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Paris on May 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Best Prediction Markets — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.