Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco’s peak heat on 14 July 2026 is being priced almost entirely in the 78–79°F band, with the market assigning a 93% probability to that range while the 80–81°F outcome sits at just 6% [1]. The crowd-implied probability of any temperature exceeding 79°F is effectively zero, reflecting a strong consensus that mid-summer highs will stay just below the 80°F threshold at the San Francisco International Airport Station.

Historical July peaks at KSFO typically cluster between 75°F and 82°F, with 78–79°F appearing frequently in recent years; the current 0% YES probability for higher temperatures aligns with this pattern and suggests no expectation of an anomalous heat spike. Comparable cases from the past decade show that temperatures above 80°F occur roughly once every three to four years, making the market’s heavy weighting on the 78–79°F band a statistically grounded read rather than an outlier bet [1].

Traders should monitor the Pacific Ocean’s surface temperatures and the position of the North Pacific High, as a stronger ridge could push highs toward 80°F, while a cooler marine layer would reinforce the 78–79°F consensus. No immediate weather announcements or scheduled dependencies are expected before settlement, but daily updates from Wunderground’s KSFO history page will be the definitive resolution source once 14 July ends [1].

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.