Highest temperature in Seattle on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seattle-Tacoma International Airport recorded its highest July 16 temperature in a specific Fahrenheit range, with the current prediction market heavily favouring the 64–65°F bracket at 100% probability, while the “YES” outcome for any higher threshold sits at 0% [1]. This stark divergence from the 0% crowd-implied probability on the higher-temperature contract aligns with historical patterns: July in Seattle typically sees moderate daytime highs around 26°C (79°F), yet the airport station often records slightly lower figures due to its coastal proximity, and recent heatwaves have shown rapid cooling once Pacific cold fronts arrive [2][3].

Traders should monitor the timing and strength of the Pacific cold front forecast to move through the region by Friday, as this is the primary catalyst for temperature suppression on July 16 [3]. The settlement relies exclusively on Wunderground data for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, meaning any discrepancy between city-wide forecasts and the airport’s specific reading could create arbitrage opportunities if sportsbook lines diverge from the prediction-market consensus [1]. With the market already pricing in a 100% chance for 64–65°F, the key dependency is whether the cold front delays or weakens, potentially pushing temperatures into the next range, though current forecasts suggest relief is imminent [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.