Highest temperature in Seattle on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seattle-Tacoma International Airport’s highest temperature on 22 July 2026 is the settlement point, and the market is already pricing a clear consensus that the day ended in the **94-95°F** bucket. Polymarket’s current distribution shows that band at **100%**, with **83°F or below** at **0%**, so the crowd-implied probability is effectively aligned with a single outcome rather than a live contest over the range.[1]

That leaves little spread versus any implied sportsbook-style line: the contract is trading as if the result is already known, and the only meaningful comparison is against the underlying weather record rather than an uncertain forecast. For context, Seattle’s late-July highs are usually materially cooler than the mid-90s, so a top reading in that range is the sort of outcome that tends to cluster around short-lived warm spells rather than a broad seasonal average; in market terms, that helps explain why the contract has collapsed to one dominant bracket.[1]

For traders, the main catalysts are not new announcements but data confirmation: the Wunderground daily history entry for SeaTac and the exact highest hourly reading recorded before the settlement window closes on 22 July 2026. Any divergence between crowd pricing and analyst consensus would normally come from uncertainty over whether the airport station logs a different peak than nearby city observations, but here the live market already appears to have priced that operational detail away.[1]

Sources: 1

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.