Highest temperature in Seattle on May 24?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 24 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport will determine which range this market resolves to. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are not backing any specific temperature band, creating a notable divergence from typical weather prediction market activity where at least marginal probability mass accumulates across plausible outcomes.

Seattle's May climate presents a narrow band of likely outcomes. Historical data from the National Weather Service shows May highs at Sea-Tac average 68–70°F, with the 90th percentile reaching approximately 78°F. Extreme heat above 85°F occurs roughly once per decade in May; the record high for the month stands at 89°F set in 1960. The current zero-probability reading across all temperature ranges is unusual for a weather market this far from settlement and suggests either a technical issue with market creation or extremely thin liquidity preventing meaningful price discovery.

Traders should monitor the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's seasonal outlook for the Pacific Northwest, typically released mid-month, which will clarify whether May 2026 tracking runs warmer or cooler than the 30-year normal. Upper-level ridge positioning in late April and early May drives Seattle's temperature variance; a persistent high-pressure system could push highs into the low 80s, whilst marine air intrusion would suppress readings toward the 60s. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on the resolution date, giving traders access to morning forecasts before finalisation.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seattle on May 24? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.