Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's weather on 14 August 2026 will be measured by the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station, with resolution determined by the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are not currently pricing in any meaningful likelihood of extreme heat on that specific date.

Seoul experiences peak summer conditions in mid-August, with historical August highs typically ranging between 28–32°C at Incheon. The city's August average maximum sits around 29°C, though heat waves can push temperatures above 35°C. August 2018 saw Seoul record 39.6°C during an exceptional heat event, whilst more typical August peaks fall in the 31–33°C band. Current market pricing at 0% implies traders are either anchored to normal seasonal patterns or the resolution brackets exclude the most probable temperature ranges entirely. Without visibility on the specific temperature bands offered, the extreme skew suggests either very narrow upper-range buckets or a mismatch between crowd expectations and available options.

The Korea Meteorological Administration issues seasonal forecasts in June and July that inform medium-range expectations for August conditions. La Niña or El Niño patterns influence East Asian summer temperatures; current Pacific conditions will shape whether 2026 August trends warmer or cooler than the 30-year normal. Traders should monitor June 2026 seasonal outlooks and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific, as typhoons can suppress temperatures or create volatile swings in the days preceding mid-August.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.