Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's weather on 17 August 2026 will be measured by the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station, with resolution determined by Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are not yet pricing meaningful conviction into any specific temperature band, indicating either early-stage market formation or consensus that certain ranges fall outside historical norms for that date.

August temperatures at Incheon typically peak between 28–32°C, with extreme heat events occasionally pushing above 33°C. Historical data from the past decade shows mid-August highs averaging around 29–30°C, though the summer of 2018 recorded 34°C on 17 August itself. The current flat probability distribution across all ranges reflects uncertainty about whether 2026 will track seasonal norms or deviate toward either cooler or more intense heat patterns. Comparable East Asian weather markets have shown that late-summer Seoul temperatures remain relatively predictable until mid-July forecasts, after which atmospheric patterns solidify.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's extended forecasts from early August, which typically gain accuracy within two weeks of the target date. Pacific typhoon activity and the strength of the North Pacific high-pressure system will be primary drivers; any tropical systems tracking toward the Korean peninsula in mid-August could suppress temperatures, whilst a dominant anticyclone would favour above-average heat. Recent summers have shown increased volatility in peak temperatures, making historical averages less reliable than they were a decade ago.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.