Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns Seoul's maximum temperature on 19 August 2026, measured at Incheon International Airport Station and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing this as an unlikely outcome, though the specific temperature threshold triggering a YES resolution remains unspecified in available market documentation.

Seoul experiences peak summer heat in mid-August, with historical August averages around 29°C and daily highs frequently exceeding 32°C. The city recorded 39.6°C on 1 August 2018 during an exceptional heatwave, whilst more typical August peaks range between 33–36°C. August 2023 saw temperatures reach 33.1°C on the 19th specifically, providing a recent comparable data point. The current 0% probability suggests the market may be calibrated to a temperature threshold substantially above historical norms, or traders are discounting extreme heat scenarios for that particular date.

South Korea's meteorological forecasts typically become reliable 10–14 days ahead, with seasonal patterns becoming clearer by early August. The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes monthly climate outlooks in early July that inform longer-range expectations. Traders should monitor late-July weather pattern developments, particularly the positioning of the North Pacific high-pressure system and any tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific, both of which significantly influence Korean peninsula temperatures. Any official heat-wave warnings issued by KMA in the fortnight preceding 19 August would represent material information for reassessing current implied probabilities.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.