Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The contract resolves to the highest temperature observed at Incheon International Airport on 2 August, so the key question is whether the day tops out in the low, mid, or upper 30s Celsius. The crowd is currently pricing **32°C** as the leading outcome at 42%, with **33°C** at 30% and **31°C** at 22%, while the market’s own description points to a daytime peak near 32–33°C in the Incheon/Seoul area, and the KMA-based write-up on the venue points to **33°C** for Incheon itself.[1][4]

That positioning leaves the market notably more cautious than the broader weather narrative. Yonhap said South Korea’s heatwave could push daytime highs to **33–39°C** on Sunday, while Reuters reported a prolonged national heatwave and record-breaking conditions in the south only two days earlier; Asiae’s regional forecast put **Incheon at 33°C** and Seoul at 35°C, suggesting the airport reading can still land in the low 30s even when the national pattern is severe.[2][11][4] By contrast, the current prediction-market pricing implies only a modest chance of the temperature breaking above 33°C, which is a more restrained view than the public weather reporting.

Traders should watch the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range updates and any local adjustments to the marine-fuelled coastal forecast, because Incheon can run a little cooler than central Seoul when sea breezes strengthen. The market also matters for its settlement mechanics: revisions to temperatures within the window are considered until the first datapoint for the following day is published, so late-day updates on Wunderground can still affect the final outcome if the hottest reading is corrected before rollover.[1][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.