Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's weather on 20 August 2026 will be measured by the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station, with resolution determined by the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests traders are pricing in either an exceptionally narrow temperature band or significant uncertainty about which range will ultimately contain the day's peak reading.

August temperatures at Incheon typically range between 26–32°C, with historical daily highs frequently exceeding 30°C during the peak summer season. The 0% probability across prediction markets indicates the crowd has concentrated its positioning elsewhere on the temperature spectrum, creating potential value asymmetries if traders believe the excluded range carries genuine probability mass. Cross-platform comparison shows no meaningful divergence between sportsbook lines and prediction-market odds, as weather derivatives remain illiquid instruments outside specialist platforms.

Traders should monitor the East Asian monsoon pattern and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during mid-August 2026, as both significantly influence Korean peninsula temperatures. The Korea Meteorological Administration typically issues seasonal outlooks in July, providing baseline expectations for August conditions. Real-time tracking of upper-atmosphere pressure systems and sea-surface temperatures in the Yellow Sea will offer more granular signals closer to the settlement date. Resolution hinges entirely on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table methodology, making familiarity with that platform's data-collection procedures at Incheon essential for accurate position assessment.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.